Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
